Hello readers,

We’re now 9.5 months into the latest bear market for BTC. We’ve seen three 30% drawdowns. “Top buyers” have rotated their coins to new hands. And now the people who were calling for the “end of the 4-year cycle” at the top are looking for “one more drawdown.”

This is playing out as wars in Iran and Ukraine/Russia are escalating. U.S. midterm season is kicking into gear. And the Fed jawbones about rate hikes.

In this week’s edition of TDR Pro, we run through the entire setup while sharing our views on whether the risks are shifting away from the downside.

Let’s go.

“Cycle Awareness” Update