# BTC: Cycle Awareness Update 

_+ our views on the evolving macro setup_

July 22, 2026 • Michael Nadeau

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# BTC: Cycle Awareness Update

## + our views on the evolving macro setup

Michael Nadeau
 July 22, 2026

 Hello readers,

 We’re now 9.5 months into the latest bear market for BTC. We’ve seen three 30% drawdowns. “Top buyers” have rotated their coins to new hands. And now the people who were calling for the “end of the 4-year cycle” at the top are looking for “one more drawdown.”

 This is playing out as wars in Iran and Ukraine/Russia are escalating. U.S. midterm season is kicking into gear. And the Fed jawbones about rate hikes.

 In this week’s edition of TDR Pro, we run through the entire setup while sharing our views on whether the risks are shifting away from the downside.

 Topics covered:

- [“Cycle Awareness” Update](#cycle-awareness-update)

- [Current Conditions Update](#current-conditions)

- [Macro Update](#macro-update)

- [Closing Thoughts & Portfolio Management](#closing-thoughts-portfolio-manageme)

 Let’s go.

# “Cycle Awareness” Update

## TDR Pro

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