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Hello readers,
It’s our view that the internet is currently evolving from 1) Human-Default (early internet) —> 2) Bot-Saturated (today) —> 3) Human-Verified (future).
World is trying to become the default infrastructure for step three. Its identity solution is designed to bolster bot-resistant internet services while enabling AI Agent services tied to human-verified accounts.
In this week’s edition of The Watch List, we provide an update on its progress and the roadmap to achieving that end state.
*Please note that you can click the data citation note under each chart to access the supporting dashboard for this week’s report.
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Let’s go.
World Chains’ core product is “proof of human.” Their goal is to create an onchain wallet ID linked to each person's biometrics.
This would allow you to use an anonymous wallet (a normal blockchain address) while also enabling you to prove you are human and reveal important information about yourself as needed (such as home country, date of birth, SSN, etc.) using zero-knowledge proofs.
As we enter an era of advanced AI, this could prove quite useful in solving fake accounts, bots, sybil attacks, etc.
Internet & social media platforms. Companies like Twitter/X have resorted to charging users an annual fee for a verified account. And those accounts still have to interact with all the bots and spam in the same app. World ID could solve this.
Messaging apps, e-commerce sites, and online games (partnership with Razer)
Banking, payments, & government services (voting). Partnership with Visa and Stripe.
Online dating. They are currently conducting a pilot with Match Group.
Prediction markets.
AI Agents tied to verified humans. World announced a partnership with Coinbase this week.
Let’s say X decides the bots are degrading the user experience so much that they need to introduce a “human verified” version. Plus, they want to enable global, peer-to-peer payments via the app.
Here’s how we think that might go:
X signs a commercial contract with Tools for Humanity (World’s legal entity). X agrees to pay $0.10 per user verification via World ID (X pays in WLD tokens; users do not pay).
X rolls out “Human Verified X.”
X users go to settings and complete the World ID verification.
X verifies the account as “human” to the rest of its users.
Now. If X adds payments, they would give the user an onchain wallet upon verification. That wallet would settle to the World Chain, and the user would interact with it via X (without ever directly touching the chain).
Because of World ID (and World Chain), X can now offer:
A “human only” version of X.
A global payment network and the ability to pay, tip, etc., natively on the app at low costs and with reduced fraud.
Ability to tie AI Agents to their human owners.
Direct ad-revenue sharing payments to X creators.
Spam-resistant growth + better ad targeting (advertisers pay more for higher quality impressions).
With this setup, rather than building identity from scratch, X can tap into World's global network of verified users as an identity layer + remain agnostic to the underlying payment rails.
Its no secret that Sam Altman is the founder of both OpenAI and World. While OpenAI has not announced a formal integration with World, it is increasingly clear that both are converging on the same core problem: how to distinguish humans from AI agents at internet scale.
OpenAI is already implementing identity verification and exploring biometric “proof of personhood,” while World is building a global, reusable credential for exactly that purpose. Furthermore, we think it’s possible that OpenAI could seek to use World to link verified humans with AI Agents. This would enable transparency around “who owns AI Agents.”
World’s core focus today is expanding the global network of human-verified users.
This becomes the product they can sell to internet native apps like X.
Let’s check in with how that’s going…
Number of World IDs (mobile app downloads): 38.5m (up from 37.4m in November of last year)
Verified World IDs (app downloads + scanned their iris with the Orb): 17.9m (up from 17.5m in November of last year)
Number of Apps: 574 (up from 444 in November of last year)
Number of Orbs Globally: 10,108 (up from 7,519 in November of last year). There are now 718 active Orb locations across 47 countries (down from 766 locations in November of last year).
Growth has slowed meaningfully over the last six months, as the stated goal for the end of 2025 was 50 million verified World IDs.
The strategy moving forward: make getting verified as easy and ubiquitous as “using an ATM.” They seek to accomplish this with the new “Orb Mini” device, which can be used in retail shops, events, enterprise settings, universities, and more.
Performance (average/day):
Last 30 days: $306
Peak: $3,454 (down 91%)
In terms of onchain profit (user fees less payments to L1), World Chain made $11.5k over the last six months.
The Chain itself is not the core product. It’s really just infrastructure for distributing and using the identity layer. That said, if there are enough apps that natively run on World Chain, onchain fees could become meaningful in the future.
Active addresses have fallen materially since the crypto markets went “risk off” last October. Over the last 30 days, the chain is averaging 183k active addresses per day, down 65% from one year ago.
Over the last 30 days, World Chain has averaged 1.5m transactions/day, up 103% from one year ago. For reference, Base (top L2) has averaged 10.6m transactions/day over the same period. Arbitrum is averaging 4m transactions/day.
Over the last 30 days, World Chain has averaged $552k/day in DEX volumes. That’s down 4.1% from one year ago, but down 88% from peak levels in Q4 of last year.
100% of DEX volumes on World Chain come from Uniswap’s deployment.
There are currently 574 “mini apps” available via the World app.
The chart above indicates that 60% of transactions on World Chain are “account abstraction” transactions — meaning the user is simply tapping the (mobile) app interface rather than dealing with a wallet and a separate browser.
World Chain currently has $371m of canonically bridged value (from L1), down from $1.26b last year. We think the decline is largely due to a drop in the WLD price, which represents 93% of the bridged value.
Max Supply: 10 billion (capped until 2038, with potential for 1.5% inflation thereafter if needed)
Circulating Supply: 2.93 billion (29.3%)
World Community: 75%
Investors: 13.6%. Unlocks began on 7/24/24 and will end in July of 2028 (5-year vesting schedule, including a 1-year lockup). 49.7% of the investor tokens are currently unlocked.
Developers/Team: 11.1%. Unlocks began on 7/24/24 and will end in July of 2028 (5-year vesting schedule, including a 1-year lockup). 50% of the developer/team tokens are currently unlocked.
Reserves: 0.3%
There will be 433 million investor and team unlocks through year-end. At the current token price of $0.39, this amounts to $168m of unlocks.
Please note that a large portion of the community tokens have technically unlocked, but are not yet circulating (these tokens can be used for incentive programs if needed).
World is currently a classic case of a project with an interesting business, but poor token economics. Investors should be mindful that the team and investors likely received tokens at discounts to the current price (which is down 96.7% from its cycle high). From what we can gather, the Series A investors (2021) came in at an FD valuation of $1b. The Series B investors came in at an FD valuation of $3b.
With that said, another $135m was raised (from a16z, Bain Capital Crypto) in May of ‘25 via a direct sale at “market prices.” The FD valuation was roughly $4b at that time (same as today).
The Iris scan. It feels invasive and could create a barrier to entry if this hurdle is not overcome.
Centralization concern. Crypto natives do not want to take World at its word that it doesn’t store user data. Of course, if it turns out that they are lying to all of us (this will come out if true), then the project likely goes to zero. We tend to think they are telling the truth (given audits), but it will take time for the market to build that trust.
Governments. World has encountered significant regulatory challenges across multiple countries, primarily due to concerns over biometric data collection, user consent, and data privacy.
Team execution. The World team has to get A LOT of things right for this to work in the long run. For example, they need the best hardware. They need to manufacture it at scale. They need to incentivize people (globally) to get a World ID. They need to bootstrap an “app store.” They need to integrate with key internet infrastructure and applications. They need to run an L2. They need to stay in compliance. That’s A LOT to execute on.
Low Token Float/unlocks. As noted, World is unlocking 433m tokens through the rest of the year. If the project cannot generate persistent demand for World ID (and the token), it could be a major headwind for the token's price. The caveat is that the current valuation is not many multiples from where we think investors received tokens.
We think World has:
The only human-verified identity solution for the next wave of the internet.
A strong mission-driven team.
Plenty of capital + strategic investors (a16z, Bain Capital, Blockchain Capital, Coinbase Ventures, Reid Hoffman). The team has raised $435m across multiple rounds.
At the same time, the global build-out of the hardware (Orb) and user adoption have been slow. Furthermore, the team has not announced any “break-out” web2 partners to deploy with to date (besides a few pilots and integrations).
While the team is actively working to “decentralize” the distribution network onboarding (via Orbs located in retail locations and via partners) to make verification “as common as an ATM,” it hasn’t reached the mainstream. For this reason, we think it’s fair to question whether true product/market fit has been achieved at this stage.
We view WLD as a high-risk/reward project and a potential 10-bagger. We traded the asset over the summer, exiting in September with a 53% gain. It’s now on The Watch List.
If you’d like to be notified if/when we add WLD back to our active portfolio (or any other assets), you can subscribe to TDR Pro and get one month free here.
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And Stay Curious.
Disclaimer: Individuals have unique circumstances, goals, and risk tolerances, so you should consult a certified investment professional and/or do your own diligence before making investment decisions. The author is not an investment advisor and may hold positions in the assets covered. Certified professionals can provide individualized investment advice tailored to your unique situation. This research report is for general educational purposes only, is not individualized, and as such should not be construed as investment advice. The content contained in the report is derived from both publicly available information as well as proprietary data sources. All information presented and sources are believed to be reliable as of the date first published. Any opinions expressed in the report are based on the information cited herein as of the date of the publication. Although The DeFi Report and the author believe the information presented is substantially accurate in all material respects and does not omit to state material facts necessary to make the statements herein not misleading, all information and materials in the report are provided on an “as is” and “as available” basis, without warranty or condition of any kind either expressed or implied.