Hello readers,

Last week we saw the first major deleveraging/”risk-off” move in the Nasdaq, with the frothiest corners of the “AI trade” getting hit hardest.

The move came amid a repricing of the U.S. Treasury curve (along with rising real rates), as investors question how the Fed intends to contain inflation.

We’re now whipsawing back up, with the Nasdaq just off all-time highs (after dropping 10%).

Which begs the question.

Was last week’s degrossing event similar to 10/10/25 in the crypto markets (the start of a broader correction)?

Or was it just a bump on the path to new all-time highs?

We provide a BTC “Cycle Awareness” update this week while exploring that very question and what it means for the crypto markets.

Let’s go.

“Cycle Awareness” Update