# What would it take for us to turn bullish?

_+ details on our investment strategy_

November 12, 2025 • Michael Nadeau

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# What would it take for us to turn bullish?

## + details on our investment strategy

Michael Nadeau
 November 12, 2025

 Hello readers,

 Things happen fast in crypto. That’s why having a disciplined, data-driven process is key to managing risk and maximizing returns.

 Our last six weeks of portfolio management highlight why:

-  On September 24th, we were almost *fully allocated* to the market, including several “risk-on” positions. In total, we held 14 positions with 10% of our crypto portfolio in cash (about as low as we go).

-  By October 1st, our cash position had increased to 24%.

-  On October 9th, it hit 58% (side-stepping the 10/10 “flash crash” in the process).

 Today?

 We’re now at 78% cash in our crypto portfolio. We’ve explained our reasoning in our [weekly analysis](https://thedefireport.io/?utm_source=thedefireport.beehiiv.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=what-would-it-take-for-us-to-turn-bullish) and in podcast format [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eDbcMuuIAr0&t=9s&utm_source=thedefireport.beehiiv.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=what-would-it-take-for-us-to-turn-bullish) (Bankless episode).

 Given our current “risk-off” posture, some members are wondering what it would take for us to return to the market as buyers.

 In this week's report, we break down the signals that would flip us back into a *risk-on* posture + share additional insights into our investment process.

 Topics covered:

- [Our Investment Strategy](#our-investment-strategy)

- [Cycle Theory and Investor Psychology](#cycle-theory-and-investor-psycholog)

- [The Key Signals We Monitor](#the-key-signals-we-monitor)

- [Closing Thoughts & Portfolio Management](#closing-thoughts-portfolio-manageme)

***Disclaimer:**** Views expressed are the author’s personal views and should not be relied upon as investment advice. *

[](https://bit-digital.com/?utm_source=thedefireport.beehiiv.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=what-would-it-take-for-us-to-turn-bullish)The DeFi Report is powered by Bit Digital, the leading global platform for high-performance computing infrastructure and one of the largest ETH Treasury firms. NASDAQ: BTBT

 Let’s go.

# Our Investment Strategy

##### Five Pillars:

-  Quantamentals approach. Our strategy is rooted in a framework that helps us understand Bitcoin’s “fair value.” We combine onchain and macro indicators to guide our view. It’s a disciplined, patient approach focused on data and conviction.

-  Macro overlay. Our crypto outlook is directly tied to our macro views across liquidity, growth, and the business cycle. We monitor 50+ data points & KPIs so that you don’t have to. *If you don’t know your macro, you don’t know your crypto. *

-  Long-term conviction. We believe BTC will ultimately achieve Gold’s market cap. We also believe that all of finance and global commerce will one day run on public blockchains. For this reason, we have no interest in shorting the market or being “delta neutral” while taking on counterparty risk. *We are long-only. *

-  Trade the “Big Cycle.” We position around the major liquidity cycles. We want to be greedy when others are fearful (‘22). And fearful when others are greedy (Q1-25, Q4-25).

-  “Rotate strategically within cycles.” We typically start a cycle in the bear market with a large allocation to Bitcoin — which tends to lead the next market expansion. As a wealth effect takes hold in BTC, we tend to see capital rotate into altcoins. Our job is to conduct ongoing research to identify these rotations *before they start. *Pro Members may recall our allocation into “risk-on” assets such as ENA (exited with 108% gain), PUMP (exited with 189% gain), GLXY (exited with 49% gain), and WLD (exited with 49% gain) over the summer as we outperformed BTC.

# Cycle Theory and Investor Psychology

 Before we hop into the key signals we track, a few comments on cycle theory and investor psychology.

## TDR Pro

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#### TDR Pro Members Receive:

-  • Macro + onchain data "cycle awareness" updates
-  • Full access to our portfolio positions
-  • Average entry price for each position
-  • % of the portfolio in each position (including cash)
-  • Weekly update on what we are buying/selling
-  • Clear thesis & supporting analysis for any portfolio changes