# Is AI Entering the "DAT Season" Stage of the Cycle?

_New financing and capital markets activity are screaming "late cycle"_

August 19, 2026 • Michael Nadeau

---

# Is AI Entering the "DAT Season" Stage of the Cycle?

## New financing and capital markets activity are screaming "late cycle"

Michael Nadeau
 August 19, 2026

 Hello readers,

 BTC closed last week *below* the all-important 200-week moving average. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq continues to struggle to reach all-time highs amid rising long-end Treasury yields.

 And now, a new wave of AI infrastructure financing is starting to resemble the kind of capital-markets innovation we often see late in the latter stages of a cycle.

 In this week’s edition of TDR Pro, we provide a “health check” on the state of the market and the important signals we are tracking to inform portfolio management, 10+ months into the latest crypto winter.

 Topics covered:

- [Market Structure & Current Conditions Update](#market-structure-current-conditions)

- [AI Financing & Macro Update](#ai-financing-macro-update)

- [Closing Thoughts & Portfolio Management](#closing-thoughts-portfolio-manageme)

 Let’s go.

# Market Structure & Current Conditions Update

## TDR Pro

 Upgrade to finish reading the report.

[Upgrade to TDR Pro](https://thedefireport.beehiiv.com/upgrade)

 Already a paying subscriber? [Sign In](https://thedefireport.beehiiv.com/login).

#### TDR Pro Members Receive:

-  • Macro + onchain data "cycle awareness" updates
-  • Full access to our portfolio positions
-  • Email notifications when we make changes
-  • Average entry price for each position
-  • % of the portfolio in each position (including cash)
-  • Weekly update on what we are buying/selling
-  • Clear thesis & supporting analysis for any portfolio changes