# Can the Economy Handle Rate Hikes? 

_Forecasting the path forward for BTC and the crypto markets_

July 29, 2026 • Michael Nadeau

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# Can the Economy Handle Rate Hikes?

## Forecasting the path forward for BTC and the crypto markets

Michael Nadeau
 July 29, 2026

 Hello readers,

 BTC continues to hover below our “fair value” target ($65k), now nearly 10 months into the latest bear market.

 We believe *seller exhaustion* is nearly complete.

 At the same time, the market is now pricing *two* rate hikes this year.

 What does that mean for markets?

 And what is the ultimate path for BTC and the *demand* side of the equation?

 We explore in this week’s edition of TDR Pro.

 Topics covered:

- [Why the Fed has to Hike Rates](#why-the-fed-has-to-hike-rates)

- [Why the Economy could “Crack”](#why-the-economy-could-crack)

- [Our Views on the Path Forward](#the-path-forward)

- [Closing Thoughts & Portfolio Management](#closing-thoughts-portfolio-manageme)

 Let’s go.

# Why the Fed has to Hike Rates

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